A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
In Taiwan, an election over the weekend sent a clear message to Beijing that the island wants to remain independent and democratic. It was a historic third consecutive victory for the Democratic Progressive Party, which has a history of resistance to China's attempts to impose its will on Taiwan. Now, shortly after the results came in, China made its disappointment and intentions clear with a simple statement, quote, "Taiwan is part of China." What China intends to do about it will become more clear in the coming days and weeks.
Bob Wang is a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He studies the China-Taiwan dynamic. Bob, as a matter of self-interest, should the U.S. be applauding this moment for democracy or maybe keeping a more neutral stance?
BOB WANG: I think the United States has clearly shown its very strong support for democracy with Blinken's statement - Secretary of State Blinken's statement. And so it is applauding it. And it's sending a delegation, which is a non-official delegation, of high-level former officials to Taiwan to meet with president-elect Lai Ching-te and as well as all the other political leaders in Taiwan. So I think it's shown, I think, a strong enthusiasm for the flourishing of democracy in Taiwan.
MARTÍNEZ: How strong could it be, though, if it's unofficial?
WANG: Well, because this is the historical sort of tie that we have. We don't have an official diplomatic tie with Taiwan. We do have unofficial ties. The American Institute in Taiwan - AIT - is technically unofficial. So we don't - we're not treating Taiwan as basically an independent with diplomatic relations with the United States. That's a historical fact.
MARTÍNEZ: So what should we make when President Biden, in response to the election, says, quote, "we do not support independence"?
WANG: Well, he's only stating what is, in fact, the case.
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
WANG: I think the question, obviously, is - you know, it does seem a little strange because Taiwan is de facto working as a government and independent in that sense. But obviously, Biden's statement is meant to carry on the historical position to avoid a conflict, a major conflict, with China over this issue. And I think generally the Biden administration, the U.S. in general, believes that what is good for Taiwan is to maintain its current way of life - freedom, democracy and all that - without a major conflict. And that's the realistic position, I think, that's been taken by the United States over the last - you know, since 1979.
MARTÍNEZ: How sustainable, Bob, is that long term, though? I know that, I guess, technically, right now if nothing happens, nothing bad can happen. But, I mean, how long can that last?
WANG: Well, nobody really knows. Obviously, a lot depends on China, on Beijing, and see what it does. But I think at this point, I think it's fairly clear to most people that a major conflict across the strait in that region with regard to Taiwan would be disastrous for China as well, for its economy, for its - with political consequences for its leaders. So I think it could last some time because it is - it would be, you know, a major blow to China to have a conflict as well, not just to Taiwan or the United States, but also to China.
MARTÍNEZ: So what's at risk, then, for the United States in economic terms if relations between these two key economic partners deteriorates further?
WANG: Well, I think the risk for the United States is that obviously a lot of the trade investment ties with China will slow down and, of course, have an impact on the United States. But at the same time, I think it's not good for China. So I think, eventually, they'll work out something where both sides will be able to restore at least economic trade ties to a normal level.
MARTÍNEZ: Bob Wang is a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Bob, thank you.
WANG: You're welcome. Take care.
(SOUNDBITE OF EAGLE EYED TIGER'S "STASIS") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.