STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The analyst Matt Pottinger has been thinking of what it would mean for Americans if China should capture Taiwan.
MATT POTTINGER: If you look at the most valuable companies in the United States, the value of those companies depend on access to Taiwan-manufactured semiconductors.
INSKEEP: Meaning a Chinese attack there could bring economic disaster here. Matt Pottinger says he wants to avoid that outcome, although it may sound as if he is preparing for it. He is a China specialist, a former journalist in Beijing, who later became deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration. Now he is the editor of a book called "The Boiling Moat." Multiple authors in that book argued that the U.S. should arm itself with the right drones, missiles, and other weapons to help Taiwan defend itself. He told me the U.S. should be ready for a war that would be extensive.
POTTINGER: It would make wars in the Middle East and in Europe right now in Ukraine seem like an afterthought by comparison, It could potentially mean the end of U.S. status as a superpower if Taiwan were coercively annexed. And by the way, this is not me calling for war. OK? Quite the opposite. I fought in wars. I'm the last person on Earth who wants to ever see the United States in a position of having to fight a war. The key is deterrence.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about that. And first, on Taiwan's level, is it possible for Taiwan to arm itself sufficiently to defend itself, in the same way that the United States is arming Ukraine to defend itself against Russia?
POTTINGER: Yeah. So in terms of deterring or repelling an invasion, geography is Taiwan's friend. Whereas, geography did not help Ukraine because they were right up against Russia's border.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
POTTINGER: But when it comes to a protracted war, in the event that we end up in a weeks- or monthslong or worse kind of a scenario, a yearslong war like we're seeing in Ukraine, geography is no longer Taiwan's friend because it's so far away from the United States, because it doesn't share a border with friendly countries on its eastern and northern flank. The key is that we want Taiwan to be able to hold out in a short conflict or in the initial phase, you know, the initial weeks of a protracted war long enough for the United States and Japan and Australia in particular to come to Taiwan's aid.
INSKEEP: So you would anticipate then at some point, U.S. troops are on the line. Americans are being killed, perhaps.
POTTINGER: Yes. I don't think that Taiwan would be able to survive a protracted conflict without Americans being involved in that war. So we need to show that we have both the capability and the will to fight in order paradoxically to not have to fight in the first place. That's what the essence of peace through strength is.
INSKEEP: You've actually got a chapter in this book that is called "Sink China's Navy." I guess that's what you're talking about here.
POTTINGER: Exactly. So my co-authors and I judged that China's center of gravity in a conflict - if China wants to win control of Taiwan, its navy is the most important component. And if we can hold that navy at risk, sink their navy and demonstrate in advance of a war that we have the capability to sink their navy, it's far less likely that Xi Jinping is going to roll the iron dice of war and take such a big risk by trying to start a fight.
INSKEEP: Does the United States even have to be prepared for a nuclear exchange because this is a nuclear armed country?
POTTINGER: Yeah. So one of the negative lessons that we should be learning, and I fear that China has learned from Vladimir Putin's nuclear saber-rattling is that Americans get really spooked easily by threats of nuclear war. But we need to just have a little bit of grit, a little extra backbone, and remember. Vladimir Putin is not suicidal, even though I think he's reckless. Xi Jinping is not suicidal, and he's less reckless than Vladimir Putin. I don't think that the risk of nuclear war is high at all.
INSKEEP: I want to underline what that calculation would be. That would be this president or a future president saying, this conflict is starting. I'm going to send in American troops against Chinese troops and discount the risk that it would escalate to something nuclear.
POTTINGER: I mean, we have a massive nuclear deterrent, much bigger than China's. I think that these are forms of psychological warfare that we need to be prepared for.
INSKEEP: Has the United States bought itself some extra time in the last couple of years because the Biden administration, has, I'm sure you know very well, cut off the supply of the highest grade chips to China, things that they might use for advanced weapons, which would presumably slow down their military development.
POTTINGER: Yeah. I think that that was an excellent move. It built on some of the steps during the Trump administration, for example, preventing some Chinese companies like Huawei from getting high-end chips. The Biden administration went much further. I think this might be the most important step President Biden's team has taken, vis-a-vis China, but it is not a permanent step. Things don't stand still. Beijing is going to look for ways to work around those export controls. So I think we need to take steps now to actually undermine Beijing's ability to monopolize older generation chips as well.
INSKEEP: I want you to have a chance to answer somebody who may be listening to this and thinking that they don't quite buy your premise, that this is a huge risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Why would China take that risk?
POTTINGER: Here is the context that I think it's important to bear in mind. Number one, Xi Jinping has said that he intends to solve the Taiwan question. Xi Jinping has said that he believes the essence of his broader policy of what he calls the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation requires this unification with Taiwan, even though Taiwan has never been under the control of the People's Republic of China. And then you need to think of this as well. What has happened just over the last year? Beijing has quintupled down on its support for Vladimir Putin's war machine and conflict against Ukraine. Beijing is also bullying the Philippines. Why would Beijing be taking these risks - these are big risks - if it weren't setting the table for an even bigger move? And I fear that that is what's happening right now.
INSKEEP: Matt Pottinger is a China specialist who served in the Trump administration and is now the editor of a book called "The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps To Defend Taiwan." Thanks so much.
POTTINGER: Steve, thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: Now, after we recorded that conversation, Bloomberg Business Week published an interview with former President Trump. The presidential candidate said he felt that Taiwan should be paying the United States for its defense. After his comments, the world's largest chipmaker, which is based in Taiwan, saw its shares drop. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
