First, sportswriters thought former University of Alabama basketball guard Labaron Philon would be picked by either the Detroit Pistons or the Chicago Bulls during the NBA draft that starts today.
Now, how about the Miami Heat?
The Associated Press’s latest NBA mock draft puts Philon being picked at number thirteen by Miami. The slender 6-3, 176-pound sophomore thrived as a scorer (22.0) and a playmaker (5.0) as a third-team AP All-American, making a leap in his shooting efficiency (50.1% overall, 39.9% on 3-pointers). He thrived as the ballhandler in pick-and-rolls (94th percentile in Synergy) and repeatedly beat man defenses in the halfcourt (90th).
As for the rest of the draft…
Throughout the lead-up to the NBA draft, the No. 5 spot has been where it becomes difficult to project picks. BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson of Kansas, college player of the year Cameron Boozer of Duke and North Carolina's Caleb Wilson have been locked into the top four spots in each version of the AP's mock draft. The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls hold the first four selections Tuesday night in Brooklyn.
Then there are a number of talented scoring guards available, such as Keaton Wagler of Illinois, Darius Acuff Jr. of Arkansas, Kingston Flemings of Houston and Mikel Brown Jr. of Louisville. But it's tough to gauge how much the Los Angeles Clippers, at No. 5, would want another small guard after acquiring Darius Garland from Cleveland last season for James Harden. Or whether the Brooklyn Nets, at No. 6, want any guard at all after taking four when they had an NBA-record five first-round picks last season.
Maybe the players gave some hints Monday. Wagler said he worked out for the Bulls and Clippers but canceled a workout with the Nets, so perhaps he knows he's not falling past No. 5. Brown said he met multiple times with the Nets, so their interest is assumed to be real. He moves up in the final version:
1. Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa, forward, BYU
The 6-foot-9, 217-pound Dybantsa averaged a national-best 25.5 points by pressuring defenses with his ability to create his own shot, get to the foul line (national-best 229 makes and 296 attempts) and find teammates (3.7 assists). Synergy rated him as “Excellent” in its analytics rankings as the ball handler in pick-and-roll scenarios (87th percentile) and post-ups (94th). He averaged 26.9 points in seven games against top-10 foes, including 35 points in a loss to Final Four-bound Arizona and a near triple-double (29 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists) in an upset of sixth-ranked Iowa State.
2. Utah Jazz: Darryn Peterson, guard, Kansas
There’s no questioning the talent and athleticism, nor the playmaking and scoring skillset. The 6-5, 199-pound Peterson averaged 20.2 points by attacking off the bounce or in transition, shot 38.2% on 3-pointers and made 82.6% of his free throws. The biggest questions arose from his availability. He dealt with a full-body cramping issue that required hospitalization before the season, missed 11 games due to injury or illness and frequently had limited minutes for uncertainty with his day-to-day status.
3. Memphis Grizzlies: Cameron Boozer, forward/center, Duke
The 6-8, 253-pound son of former Duke and NBA player Carlos Boozer became the fifth freshman voted AP men’s national player of the year. He averaged 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds, capable of finishing through contact (55.6% field goals) or stepping outside (39.1% on 3s). Synergy rated him as “Excellent” against man defense (94th percentile), on post-ups (86th) and spot-up shots (95th). He’s a strong passer (4.1 assists) out of double-teams and while initiating offense, notably assisting on Isaiah Evans’ late 3-pointer to beat reigning national champion Florida.
4. Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, forward, North Carolina
Wilson was an immediate star with explosive athleticism and a spotlight-embracing personality. The second-team AP All-American averaged 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds while thriving at the rim and in transition with his go-go-go motor. He'll need to add strength to a lean frame (6-9, 211) and improve his 3-point stroke (25.9%). Wilson had a national-best 66 dunks when he went down with a broken left hand in mid-February, then he broke his right thumb in practice when he was on the verge of returning in March.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (from Indiana): Keaton Wagler, guard, Illinois
The 6-5, 188-pound freshman went from four-star recruit to second-team AP All-American in leading Illinois to its first Final Four since 2005, averaging 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He shot 39.7% on 3-pointers, including hitting nine 3s in a 46-point performance against Purdue. He won the Jerry West Award as the nation’s top shooting guard, though he's a slim build lacking elite athleticism.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Mikel Brown Jr., guard, Louisville
The 6-5, 180-pound guard averaged 18.2 points and 4.7 assists, but showed his scoring potential when he went for 45 points and 10 3-pointers against N.C. State in February. There were also three other 29-point outputs. The biggest concern was back issues, which sidelined him for eight games at midyear then resurfaced to sideline him for the final six — including two March Madness games.
7. Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., guard, Arkansas
The 6-2, 186-pound freshman is a dynamic lead guard who ranked third nationally in scoring (23.5) and 14th in assists (6.4). His standout performances included scoring 49 points in a double-overtime loss at Alabama, along with a three-game tear (91 points, 12 3-pointers) for the Razorbacks’ first SEC Tournament title in 26 years.
8. Atlanta Hawks (from New Orleans): Kingston Flemings, guard, Houston
The 6-3, 183-pound freshman was a third-team AP All-American as a lead guard capable of being disruptive defensively. Flemings was an efficient shooter (47.6% overall, 38.7% on 3s, 84.5% on free throws) capable of pressuring teams in transition or off the dribble. He finished with a nearly 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and posted a Cougars freshman-record 42 points in a loss to Texas Tech.
9. Dallas Mavericks: Brayden Burries, guard, Arizona
The Mavericks will have a new coach in Dusty May and a top-10 pick to improve the roster. Burries, a 6-4, 215-pound freshman combo guard, has a sturdy frame and two-way potential. He was the scoring leader (16.1) for a 36-win Final Four team, shooting 49.1% overall and 39.1% from 3-point range. He was fourth at the combine in standing vertical leap (35 inches).
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Nate Ament, forward, Tennessee
There’s an intriguing blend of versatility and fluid athleticism with the 6-10, 211-pound freshman, a playmaking passer and No. 2 scorer (16.7) for a team that reached the NCAA Elite Eight. He’ll need to add strength and he leans on his jumper, with spot-up shots accounting for nearly 19% of his usage, according to Synergy. But a monthlong run in the Southeastern Conference (22.8 points with 39.1% shooting on 3s from Jan. 10 to Feb. 20) highlighted his potential, and the Nets need some size after going guard-heavy when they had five first-round picks last year.
11. Golden State Warriors: Aday Mara, center, Michigan
He stood out — literally — in the massive lineup that powered Michigan’s title run and projects as a defensive force. The 7-3, 255-pound junior from Spain averaged 12.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists while ranking sixth nationally in blocks (2.6). He led all players measured at the combine in standing reach (9-9) and was second in wingspan (7-6).
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from the L.A. Clippers): Yaxel Lendeborg, forward, Michigan
The UAB transfer has a 6-9, 241-pound frame and good wingspan (better than 7-3). He also shot 37.2% from 3-point range in the highest volume of his career and showed a competitive fight in battling through ankle and knee injuries during the Final Four against Arizona and in the title game against UConn.
14. Charlotte Hornets: Morez Johnson Jr., forward, Michigan
The 6-9, 251-pound sophomore is a versatile player with physicality, and a strong frame could even have him see time as a small-ball 5-man. He averaged 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. He has a better than 7-3 wingspan and thrived as a cutter, in post-ups and in finishing at the rim — providing a fit with a Charlotte roster already stocked with shooters and scorers like LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller.
