A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
With Joe Biden out of the contest, Donald Trump will have a new Democratic opponent in the race for the White House. Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place at the top of the ticket, so if Harris secures the nomination, how will the Trump team prepare for this new phase of the campaign? Frank Luntz is a longtime political analyst and pollster who's consulted for Republican campaigns. He's back with us this morning. Frank, you're quoted this past week in Britain's Sunday Times as saying that, quote, "Unless something dramatic happens to Trump," you believe Trump becomes the next president. Biden's decision yesterday was pretty dramatic, and in a way, it happened to Trump because it changes his opponent. What does this do to your prediction?
FRANK LUNTZ: It affects it completely. And in fact, as a pollster, it is impossible to call this race now, because the dynamics have changed - that the intensity of the opening 24 hours for Vice President Harris has been very strong, and she's likely to bring back some voters that Joe Biden had lost. It's going to cause a reshuffling of the deck, and so I can't call it now.
MARTÍNEZ: Wow. You know, I - so, OK. I want to ask you about how you'd size up a potential Trump-Kamala Harris match-up. Before that, though, I want to know - do you think Democrats should have an open convention or decide to give Harris the nomination before Chicago's convention?
LUNTZ: Well, she may have won it by the time they get to Chicago, clearly. I'm waiting for a single major Democrat to announce against her, and so the question may be moot by the time the convention happens. I can tell you this: voters do not want to have decisions imposed on them, and they did not vote for her. That said, I'm impressed with how Democrats have coalesced around her, and her candidacy has instilled a new sense of electricity, of passion, that was missing from the Democratic presidential campaign until now.
MARTÍNEZ: So how would the dynamics, then, of a Trump-Harris match-up change this race?
LUNTZ: I'm actually quite nervous about it because I'm an advocate for democracy. I'm an advocate for faith in our electoral process, and for more decency and civility and respect and dignity, and I don't think that either candidate likes each other. I don't think that either candidate has bumpers or lanes that they're going to stay within, and I believe this will be the most negative campaign in my lifetime because both candidates are really willing to throw the gloves off and swing at each other. And I'm concerned that the impact on America will be meaningful and measurable and potentially very negative.
MARTÍNEZ: Well, we know that Donald Trump likes to get into insults. He likes to make up names for people. What kind of negativity could Kamala Harris throw at Donald Trump?
LUNTZ: Well, she was very tough in 2020. She took on Joe Biden. And if you remember, her question in that first Democratic presidential debate was to take Joe Biden down, suggesting that he wasn't a supporter of civil rights, that he wasn't a supporter of underserved communities. And that's a pretty strong accusation to throw at him, and he handled it reasonably well. And if she's willing to do that against a member of her own party, what's she willing to say and do against a Republican candidate? You are correct that Donald Trump knows that there is no censor, that there is no off button to him, but she has proven that she's a tough, tough campaigner. And the two of them, if they have a presidential debate, will be - I will pay thousands of dollars to your favorite charity if you can get me front-row seats to that debate.
MARTÍNEZ: That's - well, the next debate was supposed to be between Biden and Trump in September. How likely do you think that Kamala Harris, if she becomes a nominee, will just slide right in there and have that debate? And will Trump want to have that debate, you think?
LUNTZ: I don't know, either. I think that she'll be eager to take him on directly. I believe that the race will have rejiggered itself by then. I think it's going to be a tied polling. The Poll of Polls had Trump leading by 2 or 3%, but I remind listeners that what matters is not the national polling data. It's winning 270 electoral votes. And before today, Trump is up in the key swing states of Nevada. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and it was basically too close to call in Wisconsin and Michigan, with Trump having a 4 or 5% lead in Pennsylvania. With Harris in the race, I think that those calculations will change, and it suggests that she will want as a vice president someone from the industrial Midwest, just as Trump chose someone from there - because in the end, I think that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are going to make up this campaign, and so a national debate may not be in either candidate's best interests, that they would rather focus strictly and overwhelmingly on those three key states.
MARTÍNEZ: And, Frank, really quick, about 20 seconds - how are Republicans likely to readjust their messaging if it is Kamala Harris that they're up against?
LUNTZ: They're going to accuse her of being responsible for immigration, as she was Biden's representative there, and they're gonna tie her to the Biden-Harris inflation. I think that immigration and inflation are going to be the two key issues in this campaign, and Trump had a lead on Biden on both issues, and I think that those will be what Trump focuses on.
MARTÍNEZ: Political analyst and pollster Frank Luntz, thank you very much for your thoughts.
LUNTZ: Thank you.
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