For months, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton was outspent on the air in Texas, first in a bruising primary, then as Democratic nominee James Talarico spent millions of dollars to introduce himself to voters.
That all changed this month with a massive money bomb from Republican super PACs and dark money groups, including President Trump's MAGA Inc. and Texas PAC, which is aligned with Senate Republicans.
All told, pro-Paxton ad reservations for the month of September add up to more than $94 million, enough to swamp the roughly $20 million supporting Talarico in the same timeframe. According to the tracking firm AdImpact, that GOP total for September seeking to boost the scandal-plagued Paxton is more than Democrats have spent the entire cycle on ads in Texas.
Last week at the Republican convention in Dallas, Paxton, the state's attorney general, made no secret of the fact that he needed backup.
"He is the most radical Democrat in Texas history, but he's also the most well funded," Paxton said about Talarico, in an address to convention-goers. "Which is why today I need your prayers, your votes and your support."
Talarico, a state representative, has been able to raise blockbuster sums for his campaign through viral television appearances and fundraising appeals. As of the most recent campaign finance deadline at the end of June, the Democrat had 12 times more cash on hand than Paxton. But that advantage is easily overwhelmed by super PACs and dark money groups that can raise unlimited funds and since Labor Day have swooped in to boost Republicans all over the country.
When it comes to ad spending, Republicans now have a significant advantage heading into the closing weeks of the 2026 midterms.
According to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data, Republican candidates and groups have pledged to spend more than $557 million to Democrats' $343 million in the nine most competitive Senate races this fall. Republican reservations outpace Democrats in all but one of those contests (Georgia). That advantage stretches further once House elections are factored in.
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"Look across the battleground Senate states, look at the House districts, the cavalry has come," said Scott Jennings, a longtime Republican strategist. "Now, the Republicans have enough money to make an actual argument, to draw a real contrast, to have a real debate. And in some of these districts, in some of these states, it's going to make a difference."
The cavalry has arrived in the form of more than $150 million in initial ad reservations in the last two weeks from MAGA Inc. and two new Trump-aligned groups: No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC.
What does it buy? TV ads, streaming ads, digital ads and a chance to bloody up Democratic candidates, in both Senate and House races.
"Some of these ads are going to be ugly and it's going to be a pretty negative campaign, but that's the nature of a midterm when you've got an environment like the one that the Republicans are facing," said Jennings, referencing headwinds the GOP faces this election. "And honestly I think the resources are going to allow them to win some of these races."
Much of the big spending is on defense
Aside from the volume of money flowing into these races, it's notable where these ad reservations signal Republicans need the most help. Alongside traditional swing contests that have been narrowly decided, there is serious cash going to bail out candidates in places that supported Trump by notable margins in 2024.
In the Senate, that includes races in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio — where defeats could give Democrats a majority in the chamber. In the House, Trump-aligned PAC ad spending includes Texas' 15th Congressional District, which he won by nearly 18 points in 2024; Kentucky's 6th District, which he won by 15 points; and Alabama's 2nd, a seat he carried by 14.
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The political environment is brutal for Republicans. The president's party almost always suffers losses in the midterms, and this president is historically unpopular, getting into trade wars with allies and overseeing an unpopular war with Iran that has caused gas prices to spike in a year when voters say the issue they care about most is the cost of living.
But that hasn't slowed down Trump's ability to raise campaign cash.
"I think I have like close to $1 billion in the super PAC," Trump told reporters recently in the Oval Office. "And I'm allocating probably $400 or $500 million [to the midterms]. So I'll be spending."
Trump added that he and his allies were "going to spend a lot of money because we don't want to lose our country."
Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson says this cash deficit for Democrats was predictable.
"Democrats are the party out of power and Donald Trump is more transactional than any president in history," said Ferguson. "There's no scenario where [Republicans] weren't going to have a massive financial advantage."
The GOP ad advantage is a snapshot of where the parties are allocating their resources, and spending can and will change. According to AdImpact, virtually no ads have been booked by either party in Texas from October onward, while the Ohio Senate race has more than $116 million locked in for the rest of the election.
In these ad wars, it is worth noting that while outside Republican groups have more cash than Democrats, the dynamic is reversed for the campaigns. And candidates can get more bang for their buck with that money through cheaper ad rates than super PACs.
Ferguson says money can buy a lot, but it can't sell a product people don't want.
"Money can't change the weather, but it can be an umbrella for them going into this election," Ferguson said. "It can help insulate them, but it can't change the fundamentals of what voters are feeling."
Those fundamentals are why Republicans are dipping into their vast war chests in hopes of holding on to GOP-held Senate seats and dumping tens of millions of dollars into House districts where Republican lawmakers redrew the maps to make them safer and, in a better year, would not be competitive.
Copyright 2026 NPR
