Residents of Alabama, coastal Mississippi, and the western Florida panhandle are getting ready for rough ride from Hurricane Isaias. Forecasters are predicting landfall late Friday or early Saturday. That hit could occur anywhere from Ocean Springs in Mississippi, to Mobile and the Eastern Shore in Alabama, to the western Florida panhandle. The lower third of our state is facing the possibility of tropical storm force winds and rain. Mike Evans is manager of Mobile County Emergency Management. He says residents need to get storm updates from a trusted source like the National Weather Service.
“There's all kind of sources out there that might or not give you really good, reliable information, and the and and I don't I don't understand it. I know on social media with algorithms, sometimes if you look at something, it could be from 12 hours ago,” Evans said.
The approach of Isaias appears to be prompting memories of previous storms that the hit the Alabama coast. Evans recalled for APR news how Hurricanes Sally and Zeta brought heavy winds and rains to Mobile and Baldwin Counties in the year 2020, while residents were also washing their hands, wearing face masks, and keeping six feet apart from others during the COVID-19 pandemic. During a briefing in Mobile, Evans told the press that comparing Isaias to other storms can be dangerous.
“Don't get in caught up in comparing this particular storm to one of the previous storms, and and making a decision. Well, that storm hit us, and it was similar, and we were okay. That that's not a good process to go through,” he said.
Isaias surged toward the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday as the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, prompting mandatory evacuations, school closures and local government shutdowns in parts of Florida.
Isaias was forecast to intensify rapidly and bring strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge to the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rain and flooding were possible into the weekend as far inland as the Tennessee Valley.
“We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said in a mid-morning update.
He added: “Today is the day to prepare and get ready and be in your safe place by tomorrow as conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the northern Gulf Coast as Isaias approaches.”
The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph and was moving east-northeast at 10 mph as of late Thursday morning, the hurricane center said. It was centered about 380 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Coastal communities moved quickly to prepare, as officials in Alabama cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach urged tourists to evacuate immediately, warning that bridges could be closed by midday Friday. At least four Florida school districts canceled late-week classes, while several counties announced mandatory evacuations for some coastal areas.
The governors of Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency for dozens of counties ahead of Isaias' arrival.
Dauphin Island, a 15-mile-long barrier island off the Alabama coast, encouraged some people to voluntarily evacuate.
“That area is traditionally very vulnerable to storm surge — saltwater flooding — and that is also where most of the visitors are," Mayor Jeff Collier said Thursday of the western part of the island.
He said he didn't anticipate substantial damage, “but at the same time, these things are very fickle and a little jog here or there or some last-minute increase in strength, we just have to be prepared for the worst.”
Water from the storm surge and high tide could reach heights of 5 to 7 feet (1.5 to 2 meters) in parts of Alabama and Mississippi, the hurricane center said. Isaias also could dump up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain along parts of the Gulf Coast and spawn tornadoes overnight Friday into Saturday from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia. The hurricane is expected to quickly weaken after making landfall.
The National Weather Service told communities from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Gulf County, Florida, to prepare for the possibility of “long-duration power outages.”
Isaias developed more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season and was one day short of tying a 121-year-old record for the area’s latest-forming hurricane. According to the weather service, the record dates to 1905, when the year’s first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over the Atlantic. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon formed Wednesday off Mexico and where Tropical Storm Rachel, formerly a hurricane, was expected to approach northern Baja California, Mexico, and Southern California this weekend, the hurricane center said.
Isaias is expected to strike a swath of coastline that’s familiar with major hurricanes.
One of the 20th century’s worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.
As of Wednesday, about 25% of the oil production in the region had been temporarily halted, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
In Gulf Shores, an Alabama community encouraging voluntary evacuations, resident Maranie Adams gathered water and other supplies as her family moved belongings, including a hot tub motor, to higher ground. Her family planned to ride out the storm at home, roughly a half-mile from shore, sheltering indoors alongside their flock of chickens.
“We’re having to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t blow away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be noisy.”
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The state also planned to deploy a Miami-based urban search and rescue task force.
In Pensacola, officials said the airport will close to commercial flights Friday morning, while utility crews prepared for power outages and officials opened sandbag distribution sites. Mayor D.C. Reeves urged residents to check on older adult neighbors and others who might need help.
“Obviously no need to panic at this point,” Reeves told a news conference. “This is really about preparation.”
