Hurricane Isaias is forecast to miss the oil industry’s biggest hubs along the Gulf Coast, but could still nudge fuel prices higher if it triggers power outages that shut down refineries for processing crude, according to experts. An extended refinery shutdown would impact fuel supplies that already have taken a hit from the U.S. war against Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Experts say that could increase fuel prices by a few cents or even as much as a dollar per gallon. Refineries in Pascagoula, Mississippi, and Mobile, Alabama, account for 2.4% of the nation’s refining capacity. If the storm moves through quickly with minimal impacts, refineries would continue to run at reduced capacity, and gasoline and diesel prices could rise just a few cents, said Carl Larry with the energy analysis firm Enverus.
Refineries could take weeks to fully recover from a major hit, he added.
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan says strong winds arriving at the coast in the early afternoon are expected to spread well inland during the hurricane — reaching as far as metro Atlanta and Tennessee.
Isaias strengthened Friday into a major hurricane as it headed toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, where final preparations were being made for potentially life-threatening storm surges and high winds.
The hurricane is forecast to make landfall late Friday somewhere along the Alabama-Florida line and create dangerous conditions in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, the National Hurricane Center said. Rain began falling along the coast Friday morning, and tropical storm conditions were expected to begin early in the afternoon.
The Category 3 storm was packing 120 mph winds and was expected to continue strengthening. Category 3 storms, considered major hurricanes, are capable of causing devastating damage, the center said.
Isaias was expected to weaken quickly as it hits shore and be downgraded to a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon as it moves north and inland along the Alabama-Mississippi line, the center said.
Inland areas are also at risk of scattered power outages and tree damage, he said.
Storm surge will be a major concern with Isaias, with the highest water levels expected from the Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach in the western Florida Panhandle. Significant storm surge is also expected in Florida’s Big Bend region, Brennan said.
“So if you’re in these evacuation zones and you’ve been asked to leave by your local officials, please get out as soon as you can before conditions deteriorate further,” he said.
Brennan said the highest tornado risk will be Friday afternoon into the evening in central parts of the Panhandle to southwestern Georgia. That risk will expand Saturday to much of central and southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina, he added.
Double red flag warnings prohibiting swimming and wading were posted Friday morning as beachgoers were asked to evacuate. The surf was at about 6 feet (2 meters) and rising, officials said in a social media post.
Lifeguards were expected to leave the beach mid-morning after urging people to leave and stay safe during the storm.
“Bottom line is to just please be smart. Please be smart,” Pensacola Mayor D.C. Reeves said in a social media post. “You wouldn’t consciously put your lives in danger. Make sure that you don’t put the fire, the police — please do not put them in danger. They are not going to be able to respond.”